The Financial Times
By Judy Dempsey, Diplomatic Correspondent, in Brussels

Russia is breaking the treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) but Nato and European Union officials are reluctant to raise the issue with President Vladimir Putin when he arrives in Brussels on Monday.

With the US administration anxious to keep Russia on board its global coalition against terrorism, several European diplomats said Washington would not push Mr Putin to comply with a treaty aimed at reducing the levels of conventional weapons in 30 countries, ranging from Canada and Europe to the new republics of the former Soviet Union.

"Such pressure would be politically inconvenient," said one European diplomat. "Trying to push Russian compliance is not a priority for the Americans, even though many of us believe Moscow will exploit the fight against terrorism to its own advantage."

Indeed, diplomats warn that if Washington and the Europeans do not press Russia to comply, it could have far-reaching consequences for the northern Caucasus, the region at the heart of the CFE dispute between Russia and Nato.

The independence of Georgia, to the south, and Moldova, to the west, could be undermined, especially as Georgia depends on Russia for its gas supplies. Turkey, a key Nato ally with close ties to the region, is also concerned. Without compliance with CFE, Turkey sees Russia entrenching itself in a region where it could control vital gas and electricity supplies to Ankara.

The 1999 CFE treaty (often called CFE2) is an adaptation of the original 1990 CFE1 treaty that established ceilings of conventional weapons for Warsaw Pact and Nato military blocs.

After the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and Nato expansion, ceilings were modified to apply to individual countries. The weapons categories - armoured personnel carriers (APCs), tanks and artillery pieces - remained the same. The new treaty, diplomats say, takes better account of Russia's security interests, especially along its southern borders. However, neither Congress nor the Duma has yet ratified it. This means that, technically speaking, the CFE1 treaty is still valid. Even so, diplomats said Russia had frequently breached those ceilings.

Moscow is now also violating the CFE2 treaty, they note. Under its terms, Russia undertook to withdraw its remaining forces from Georgia and Moldova. By last July, the deadline set for disbanding its military base of Gudauta, northern Georgia, Moscow was still entrenched.

Russia claims it needs the base as a "rest and recreation" facility for monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. "But we know, and the Russians know we know, that they are staying in Gudauta to prevent supplies reaching the rebels in Chechnya," said a western diplomat.

Russia also said it would destroy or withdraw the 40,000 tons of ammunition it keeps in the trans-Dnestr region in Moldova, home to a Russian ethnic minority. One phase was recently completed. Despite repeated offers of western financial assistance, diplomats said Russia had refused to complete the final two phases.

There is also substantial non-compliance along the northern Caucasus. Russia tried hard in 1999 to have this flank treated as an exclusion zone with no weapons limitations. It insisted it needed flexibility to deal with the Chechnya rebellion.

Nato members refused such a zone. "However, we bent over backwards to accommodate Russia," said a European military attache. The size of the flank zone was reduced and Russia's APC allowance was increased from 1,380 to 2,140. Nevertheless, said western defence experts, Russia had exceeded that allowance by 500 APCs and tanks by 300. It has also refused to allow inspections into Chechnya, claiming travelling there is too dangerous. "The bottom line", said a senior defence official, "is that Russia is in breach of CFE." More important, Moscow may well use its non-compliance as one condition of remaining in any US-led coalition.