The Russian authorities are bent on repatriating Chechen refugees from Ingushetia and Georgia by the end of the year, according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta. However, the newspaper believes that the Chechens will spend not only a fourth winter, but probably the one after that too, in tent towns. Virtually nothing is being done by federal and local authorities in Chechnya to prepare conditions for the return of the refugees, while their life in Ingushetia, in particular, is improving. The following is the text of report by Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 29 March. The subheadings are the newspaper's own:

Ingushetia has agreed to "release" the Chechen refugees, but they would rather stay with their neighbours.

For the first time since the start of the antiterrorist operation in Chechnya, the Ingush leadership has agreed to Moscow's demands for the encouragement of the Chechen refugees living in Ingushetia to go back home voluntarily. By making this choice, acting President Akhmed Malsagov of Ingushetia supported the federal centre, which had been fighting a losing battle for more than a year with the government of [former Ingush President] Ruslan Aushev, impeding the repatriation process. Meanwhile, preparations are being made in Georgia's Pankisi gorge for an operation to neutralize the Chechen rebel fighters and secure the return of the refugees to Chechnya. So far, nothing is being done about the refugees in Azerbaijan, whose problems are being handled by only one agency in Baku - the Permanent Mission of Ichkeria, established when Dzhokhar Dudayev took office in Chechnya. Spring could mark the start of visible normalization in the rebellious republic, and the principal sign of this would be the return of the almost 300,000 victims of war and terrorism - living witnesses of the failure to meet the goals set at the start of the operation in Chechnya.

Repatriation via presidential elections

The chief opponents of the return to Chechnya, which is still at war, are the refugees themselves, because of their justifiable fear for their lives, and also because there are no jobs in the ravaged republic, whereas they are fully able to make a living, and even to start a business of their own, in Ingushetia or in neighbouring regions.

The presence of the refugees in Ingushetia, whose numbers were always exaggerated by local authorities, gave Ruslan Aushev an excuse to talk about the failure of the actions of federal forces in Chechnya and the impossibility of restoring order in the rebellious republic and guaranteeing the safety of the victims of war. Nazran also insisted on the need to recognize president Aslan Maskhadov as the only legitimate authority in negotiations with Moscow.

These were not the only considerations for local authorities, however. The last time a PACE representative had come to Ingushetia, the intention to continue helping the refugees from Chechnya was confirmed. Plans called for the allocation of about 20m dollars for this purpose in 2002. Besides this, as far as the previous Ingush leadership was concerned, the refugees represented the most grateful segment of the voting public. Ruslan Aushev's highly vocal defence of their interests had done much to improve their lives.

The change in Nazran's stance is connected directly with the election campaign in Ingushetia. Former Prime Minister Akhmed Malsagov had a change of heart after making the transition from colleague to fierce opponent of former President Ruslan Aushev and winning the support of Viktor Kazantsev, the Russian president's plenipotentiary representative in the Southern Federal District. He did stipulate, however, that the refugees would have to return voluntarily. Obviously, the Kremlin will not be able to finalize the details until the election has been won by any candidate not on the team of Ruslan Aushev and Mikhail Gutseriyev, the president of Slavneft. Moscow has a good chance of getting this done: The favourite in the race is retired FSB [Federal Security Service] Gen Murad Zyazikov, recently appointed Kazantsev's deputy.

The refugees are forming new communities

Meanwhile, only a few isolated refugees have chosen to return to Chechnya. According to the records of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ingushetia, the inhabitants of Chechnya are still leaving the republic, although in smaller numbers - about 20 each day. The number rises after each new outburst of violence.

Furthermore, the refugees seriously plan to settle down in Ingushetia for a long time. This was the third winter since the start of the antiterrorist operation, and there is no end in sight. During that time, some of the refugees started small businesses, acquired property, and enrolled their children in schools. Many of them have no intention of going back, even if peace prevails in their homeland. More than 10,000 of the officially registered 150,000 refugees in Ingushetia have already applied for permanent resident status in the republic. Tens of thousands more will follow their example as soon as they are compensated for the homes they lost in Chechnya. By law, they cannot register as residents of their new location until they have given up their refugee status and, consequently, their right to compensation.

Nevertheless, thousands of them have already formed densely populated communities in Malgobekskiy District, arousing the smouldering discontent of their Ingush neighbours. Even the new community of Bert- Yurt (Yuzhnoye), made up of refugees of the Ingush nationality, evokes the dissatisfaction of the local population, already suffering from the shortage of land and jobs. The more industrious Chechens have crowded local residents out of the service sector and trade.

The settlement of Chechens in territories densely populated by the Ingush could lead to all sorts of disproportionate reactions, despite their status as fraternal nationalities. This is clear from the periodic fights between young people from the two republics and the new rash of leaflets demanding the return of the "intrinsically Chechen" border districts to the jurisdiction of Chechnya. The last time these leaflets were distributed here was in 1993, a year after the creation of the Republic of Ingushetia. After former President Dzhokhar Dudayev of Ichkeria recognized the new republic, however, the leaflets disappeared. Now they are back, according to observers in Nazran, largely because of the election: to suggest, for example, that the situation in the republic was kept under control only on the strength of Ruslan Aushev's authority. Do you see what will happen, they imply, if the voters elect an officer of the KGB?

The Arabs Are Setting Up New Camps

It seems obvious that only the election of a presidential candidate loyal to Moscow will solve this problem. Expressing his dissatisfaction with the refusal of the refugees to return, Chechen [pro-Moscow] leader Akhmad Kadyrov inexplicably remarked that all it would take is "a couple of rounds of fire at the camps, and the refugees would have nowhere to go". The mere transfer of the tent towns to Chechnya and the cessation of humanitarian aid in Ingushetia would not solve the problem, if only because so many of the refugees have set up households in the last four years, insulating their tents against the cold and hooking them up to electricity, gas, and water lines. International organizations have not left them to shift for themselves either, especially the Swiss and Arab charities. Some of them are acting independently in Ingushetia.

Despite the Russian government directive on the centralized distribution of humanitarian aid, regardless of the source, through the Ministry of Civil Defence, Emergencies and Natural Disasters, foreign charities prefer to handle these matters on their own, suggesting that not all of the humanitarian aid reaches the designated recipients. Saudi Red Crescent, ignoring Moscow's policy against the construction of any more refugee camps in Ingushetia, opened the best-equipped camp yet, Satsita, with accommodations for 7,000 people, near Sleptsovskaya last year. The camp was built with room to grow, to accommodate the people who are still fleeing their homeland.

In view of the fact that the Ingush who sheltered refugees in their homes for the last four years are sick and tired of their guests and want them to move to tent towns, it is possible that one or more new camps will be opened soon.

Groznyy: they did not and do not expect anyone

The refugees could have more incentive to return if the problem of providing them with homes and jobs in their homeland can be solved. Only two five-story buildings have been repaired in Groznyy so far, and they have already been occupied by their former tenants. In all, however, almost half of the republic's population would have to be repatriated. The construction of eight centres for migrants in need, designed to accommodate 8,000 people in all, was supposed to have been completed by the end of last year in Groznyy. The Grozneftemash communal dwelling, with 83 flats, was supposed to have been built even earlier, but the shortage of funds prevented the elimination of "minor defects", not to mention the payment of the team of 40 builders from SMU-3 their wages for several months.

In a conversation with the Nezavisimaya Gazeta correspondent, Chechen policemen related the uncoordinated activities of various agencies handling refugee affairs. The police get "assignments" to make the arrangements for the return of a certain number of refugees, but the agencies responsible for their accommodation cannot provide them with any housing. A team of five officers from the passport and visa service of the Internal Affairs Directorate of the Chechen Republic spent several months in Ingushetia, taking applications from displaced persons. About 3,000 wanted to return to Chechnya. There was no place to send them, however. Most of the problems arise with former residents of Chechen towns which were particularly devastated by the war. In contrast to rural structures, homes in towns are difficult to restore without the help of municipal services. Most of these people are from Groznyy.

Judging by all indications, Moscow seriously intends to solve the problem of the temporarily displaced persons staying in Ingushetia and Georgia before the end of this year, and also the problem of the so-called missions of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria in Tbilisi and Baku, which are not only spreading political propaganda, but are also supporting their fellow clansmen, performing the functions of the official Russian missions. The Chechen missions supporting their fellow countrymen feel legally, or at least morally, entitled to act on their behalf. In Baku, for example, the Chechen "mission" organizes "universal hunger strikes" in private homes to attract the attention of the European parliament and foreign journalists, especially the Turks. Their demands are well known: Stop the war and get the federal troops out of Chechnya.

Nevertheless, so little has been done to secure the repatriation of the refugees that we can safely make this prediction: The Chechens will spend not only a fourth winter, but probably the one after that as well, in the tent towns. Furthermore, in view of the fact that Ingushetia already had refugee camps during the first war, the young Chechens regard Ingushetia as their real homeland, and the thought of "repatriation" never even occurs to them.

BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Apr 4, 2002
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Moscow, in Russian 29 Mar 02